Grayscale Research Flags Bitcoin Bottom as Bull Market Signs Appear

By: crypto insight|2026/05/19 09:48:11

BTC

Key Takeaways:

Grayscale Research indicates Bitcoin has formed a bottom in the $65,000–$70,000 range.
On-chain data shows recent buyers nearing breakeven after a 20% recovery from $63,000 lows.
Bitcoin Bull Score Index moves to neutral, signaling potential bullish phase.
BTC momentarily peaks at $78,417 amid geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices.
Market activity spikes with increased trading volume and open interest in derivatives.

WEEX Crypto News, 2026-04-22 12:20:34

Bitcoin’s Bullish Turn Predicted by Grayscale

Bitcoin price is speculated to have hit a bottom between $65,000 and $70,000, based on Grayscale Research head Zach Pandl’s analysis. On-chain data reveals that recent buyers are inching close to breakeven as Bitcoin bounces from February’s $63,000 lows with a 20% rebound. Current realized price hovers around $74,000, easing sell pressure and boosting investor confidence towards a new bull phase.

Shifts in Bitcoin Market Indicators

Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant highlights a shift in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index to neutral for the first time in this bear market cycle, indicating volatility and possible bullish trends. Caution remains, as similar patterns in March 2022 preceded a price drop. Even so, market sentiment is bolstered by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and early investor accumulation beyond previous recovery cycles.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to Geopolitical Developments

A sudden increase in Bitcoin price to $78,417 aligns with an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire announced by President Trump, which also nudged oil prices below $90 per barrel. The US maintains naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz as diplomatic efforts continue, minimizing immediate conflict risks that could potentially disrupt markets, indirectly impacting Bitcoin’s trading dynamics.

-- Price

Derivatives Market and Liquidity Dynamics

Bitcoin’s rebound is further evidenced by heightened activity in the derivatives market, with futures open interest jumping 6% to $59.53 billion, highlighting bullish sentiment among traders. This shift is amid broader liquidity adjustments in the US, reflecting growing interest and institutional participation, a critical element in sustaining upward price trajectories.

Role of Federal Reserve Liquidity in Bitcoin’s Performance

Bitcoin’s recovery aligns with increased US Federal Reserve liquidity. Coincidentally, Bitcoin surpassed analyst Benjamin Cowen’s resistance band, a historical marker for key market shifts. This confirms Bitcoin’s close correlation with US liquidity trends, emphasizing its sensitivity to macroeconomic policies and liquidity shifts.

FAQ

What does the Bitcoin Bull Score Index indicate?

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index is a metric used to gauge market sentiment, with a neutral position suggesting potential bullish activity, though past patterns also caution about volatility.

How does US-Iran geopolitical tension affect Bitcoin prices?

Geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Iran ceasefire, impact global oil prices and market stability, indirectly affecting Bitcoin due to traders’ risk assessments and hedge strategies.

Why are Bitcoin derivatives significant for market trends?

A surge in Bitcoin derivatives, indicated by open interest, reflects trader sentiment and market confidence, critical in predicting potential price movements and sustaining trends.

How crucial is US Federal Reserve liquidity to Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price movements are closely aligned with US Federal Reserve liquidity. Increased liquidity often correlates with positive Bitcoin performance, highlighting its reliance on broader economic factors.

What is the significance of the $65,000–$70,000 price range?

This range is identified as Bitcoin’s potential market bottom, providing a baseline for recovery and setting the stage for possible bull market phases, according to Grayscale Research.

Interlace has launched two innovative products, Agent Card and Scan to Pay, bridging traditional finance and the crypto world, and comprehensively accelerating the integration of AI Agent consumption and stablecoin payments into everyday business scenarios with a more secure and efficient enterprise...

Morning Report | Musk's xAI launches Skills; Duan Yongping to first build position in Circle in Q1 2026; Polymarket partners with Nasdaq to launch prediction market

Overview of Important Market Events on May 19

Dialogue with Lead Bank Founder Jackie: American Banks Re-embrace Crypto

Excellent crypto companies are not those that are "best at circumventing regulations," but those that are "best at evolving in collaboration with regulations."

Vitalik: What we need to do is not to fight against AI, but to create a sanctuary

What is truly scarce is not computing power, but people who are willing to think proactively and retain sovereignty.

Morning News | VanEck and Grayscale submitted BNB ETF amendments on the same day; BlackRock discusses investing billions of dollars in SpaceX's IPO; Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information again

Overview of Important Market Events on May 17

Crypto ETF Weekly | Last week, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was $995 million; the net outflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the United States was $255 million

Avenir Group solidifies its position as the largest Bitcoin ETF institutional holder in Asia, ranking first in the region for eight consecutive seasons.

This Week's News Preview | The Federal Reserve Releases the Last FOMC Minutes of the "Powell Era"

Highlights of the week from May 18 to May 24.

Blockchain Capital Partner: Most people's understanding of on-chain economy is narrow

In the author's view, the most astonishing things in the blockchain space have yet to be created. Flash loans give us a glimpse, but this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The ambition of "one account trading global assets": How does CoinUp.io break down asset barriers to become an industry dark horse?

Create a diversified financial ecosystem through collaboration between CEX and public chains.

How long will it take for the GPU futures market when computing power is commoditized?

Will computing power be the next major commodity? Examining the GPU futures market from five dimensions: it is still too early to talk about an explosion; the real breakthrough variable lies within the wave of open-source models and inference demand.

Harvard University loses $150 million in cryptocurrency! Has completely liquidated Ethereum and significantly reduced its Bitcoin ETF positions

In just two quarters, Harvard's public holdings in crypto assets fell from a peak of $443 million to about $117 million.

BNB Chain releases a research report exploring the migration path of BSC to post-quantum cryptography

The report explores the specific performance and implementation path impacts of replacing traditional blockchain cryptography with anti-quantum methods, including the use of ML-DSA-44 as a transaction signature scheme and the use of pqSTARK aggregated verifier consensus signatures.

After the number of developers was halved: Crypto is not dead, it has just handed over talent to AI

The trust, coordination, and verification issues encountered in the scaling of AI will ultimately require the mechanism design capabilities accumulated by the crypto industry to resolve.

"JUST 6th Anniversary x GasFree Super Carnival Month" is here: Enjoy "0" Gas transfer freedom and share a prize pool of 10,000 USDT

The total prize pool for this grand event reaches 10,000 USDT, covering multiple gameplay options such as the GasFree activation challenge, the exclusive prize pool for the pizza festival, the JUST 6th anniversary lucky koi, and knowledge competitions.

Morning News | AEON completes $8 million Pre-Seed round financing led by YZi Labs; Goldman Sachs liquidates XRP and Solana ETF holdings in Q1; Strategy increased its holdings by 24,869 BTC last week

Overview of Important Market Events on May 18

Capital Markets: How will independent agents obtain financing?

Agents are becoming real companies: signing contracts, opening accounts, taking orders, and sharing profits. When ten thousand such companies are operating simultaneously, who will lend to them? How do they obtain financing?

Duan Yongping establishes a position in a cryptocurrency company for the first time: Why Circle?

The stablecoin company represented by Circle is becoming the bridge that is easiest for traditional capital to understand and accept.

Vitalik: What is the key to the next phase of Ethereum?